Crystal Palacevs
Ipswich
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crystal Palace · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich
Original prediction
Crystal Palace
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 50.2% | 43.4% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.6% | 25.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 24.2% | 31.3% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Crystal Palace
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Crystal Palace has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20