Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo
Original prediction
Cruzeiro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 53.1% | 44.7% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.2% | 27.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.55 | 20.7% | 28.2% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CruzeiroWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Sao PauloLWDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CruzeiroSao Paulo
50.0Attack39.3
52.4Defence61.9
53.6Form42.9
53.8Power49.9
1.24xG1.01