Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruzeiro 1-0 Remo
Original prediction
Cruzeiro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 71.2% | 63.9% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.38 | 17.4% | 19.7% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 8.20 | 11.4% | 16.4% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CruzeiroWLWWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RemoDDDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CruzeiroRemo
53.8Attack36.6
50.5Defence47.3
54.8Form28.0
54.7Power39.6
1.91xG0.94