Cruzeirovs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruzeiro 3-1 Atletico Paranaense
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 51.2% | 33.8% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.8% | 26.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.28 | 22.0% | 40.0% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00