Cruz Azul Hidalgovs
Piratas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1-1 Piratas
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.7% | 26.4% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.5% | 25.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.9% | 48.1% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00