Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crewe · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crewe 1-1 York
Original prediction
Crewe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.6% | 36.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.1% | 29.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.3% | 33.9% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Crewe
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CreweDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
YorkLWDWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CreweYork
33.3Attack66.7
83.3Defence41.7
66.7Form58.3
64.8Power58.8
1.42xG1.15