Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Walsall · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crewe 2-2 Walsall
Original prediction
Walsall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.6% | 35.3% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.2% | 28.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 31.3% | 36.2% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Walsall
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Walsall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CreweDLWWW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
WalsallWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CreweWalsall
22.2Attack66.7
100.0Defence77.8
77.8Form77.8
70.7Power74.7
1.06xG1.19