Crewevs
Shrewsbury
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crewe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Crewe 1-0 Shrewsbury, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Crewe 1-1 Shrewsbury
Original prediction
Crewe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.9% | 52.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.1% | 27.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 23.9% | 20.8% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Projected Score
Crewe 1–0 Shrewsbury
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Crewe
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CreweDDDDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ShrewsburyWLLWL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
CreweShrewsbury
33.3Attack22.2
77.8Defence44.4
55.6Form33.3
59.1Power36.3
1.39xG0.61