Crewevs
Bristol Rovers
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Crewe 0-0 Bristol Rovers, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Crewe 3-1 Bristol Rovers
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 31.5% | 35.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 30.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.1% | 34.4% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Crewe 0–0 Bristol Rovers
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
35.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CreweDWDDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 1/5
Bristol RoversWLLWW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
CreweBristol Rovers
33.3Attack54.2
75.0Defence54.2
50.0Form62.5
56.2Power58.4
1.05xG0.88