Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cremonese 1-0 Padova, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cremonese 3-1 Padova
Original prediction
Cremonese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.7% | 55.8% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.8% | 27.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.13 | 22.5% | 16.8% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Projected Score
Cremonese 1–0 Padova
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CremoneseWLLWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
PadovaDWLDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CremonesePadova
44.4Attack34.2
71.4Defence57.0
57.1Form40.4
59.1Power46.6
1.27xG0.51