Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Cremonese are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Modena are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cremonese hold an 11.4-point power-rating edge (59.1 v 47.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.9% in the Serie B, while Cremonese holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
19.9%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40