Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cremonese 1-0 Modena, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cremonese 0-3 Modena
Original prediction
Cremonese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 46.3% | 53.3% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 30.2% | 28.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 23.5% | 18.3% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Projected Score
Cremonese 1–0 Modena
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CremoneseLWDDW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ModenaWLDWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CremoneseModena
44.4Attack36.0
71.4Defence58.8
57.1Form41.2
59.1Power47.6
1.22xG0.54