Crawley Townvs
Tranmere
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tranmere · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crawley Town 1-1 Tranmere
Original prediction
Tranmere
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 36.1% | 30.6% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.1% | 28.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 36.8% | 40.6% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Tranmere
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Tranmere has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60