Crawley Townvs
Shrewsbury
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shrewsbury · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crawley Town 2-3 Shrewsbury
Original prediction
Shrewsbury
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 33.1% | 33.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 38.9% | 38.4% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Shrewsbury
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Shrewsbury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20