Crawley Townvs
Chesterfield
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crawley Town 2-2 Chesterfield
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.68 | 19.9% | 25.4% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 22.3% | 27.0% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 57.9% | 47.7% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60