Crawley Townvs
Cheltenham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crawley Town 1-3 Cheltenham
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 39.6% | 34.2% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.7% | 28.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.7% | 37.4% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80