Cowdenbeathvs
Kilmarnock II
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cowdenbeath · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cowdenbeath 1-2 Kilmarnock II
Original prediction
Cowdenbeath
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.7% | 37.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 25.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.5% | 37.4% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cowdenbeath
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Cowdenbeath has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40