Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coventry 4-1 Newcastle
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 28.7% | 27.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.5% | 24.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 44.7% | 47.5% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoventryWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
NewcastleWLWDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CoventryNewcastle
6.7Attack60.0
33.3Defence40.0
20.0Form53.3
23.9Power53.0
1.26xG1.92