Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fulham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coventry 0-1 Fulham
Original prediction
Fulham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 30.5% | 31.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.5% | 27.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 42.0% | 41.5% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Fulham
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Fulham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoventryLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FulhamWLDWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CoventryFulham
28.6Attack33.3
33.3Defence52.4
28.6Form23.8
32.1Power39.5
1.08xG1.31