Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coventry 0-5 Brighton
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 24.4% | 27.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.6% | 25.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 50.1% | 46.8% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoventryLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BrightonDLWWD
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CoventryBrighton
0.0Attack88.9
44.4Defence44.4
0.0Form44.4
19.2Power56.8
1.28xG1.87