Coventryvs
Aston Villa
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coventry · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coventry 1-3 Aston Villa
Original prediction
Coventry
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 31.3% | 42.9% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.7% | 26.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 42.0% | 30.8% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Coventry
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Coventry has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80