Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coritiba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol
Original prediction
Coritiba
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.5% | 51.2% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.3% | 25.7% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 30.2% | 23.1% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Coritiba
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Coritiba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoritibaWWDWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MirassolLDDDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CoritibaMirassol
44.0Attack36.0
56.0Defence48.0
49.3Form33.3
51.8Power41.9
1.52xG0.84