Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coritiba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coritiba 0-1 Gremio
Original prediction
Coritiba
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.4% | 42.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.1% | 26.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 29.4% | 30.9% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Coritiba
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Coritiba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoritibaLDLLD
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GremioLDDDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CoritibaGremio
40.9Attack36.6
47.3Defence52.7
41.9Form33.3
45.4Power43.2
1.25xG1.04