Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coritiba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo
Original prediction
Coritiba
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 35.7% | 38.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.2% | 25.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.1% | 36.8% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Coritiba
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Coritiba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoritibaLLDLW
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
BotafogoLLWDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CoritibaBotafogo
42.5Attack48.3
46.0Defence46.0
43.7Form40.2
46.0Power46.4
1.48xG1.42