Coritibavs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coritiba 3-3 Atletico Paranaense
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 30.2% | 30.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.8% | 28.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80