Corinthiansvs
Chapecoense-sc
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/6/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Corinthians · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Corinthians 1-0 Chapecoense-sc, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Corinthians 1-2 Chapecoense-sc
Original prediction
Corinthians
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 65.2% | 64.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.8% | 22.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 7.24 | 13.0% | 13.3% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Projected Score
Corinthians 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Corinthians
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Corinthians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CorinthiansLLWLD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Chapecoense-scLWDLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CorinthiansChapecoense-sc
34.7Attack34.7
66.7Defence31.9
42.7Form19.4
49.8Power31.6
1.60xG0.60