Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Como 2-1 Parma
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 76.9% | 59.1% | -17.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.02 | 15.8% | 22.6% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 12.86 | 7.4% | 18.3% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ComoWWWDD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ParmaDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ComoParma
77.8Attack11.1
66.7Defence55.6
77.8Form11.1
74.7Power29.5
1.90xG0.84