Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Como 0-0 AS Roma
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 37.9% | 32.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.9% | 26.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 35.2% | 41.7% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ComoLWWWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AS RomaDWDWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ComoAS Roma
60.0Attack93.3
60.0Defence80.0
66.7Form86.7
63.4Power84.8
1.18xG1.57