Comerciantes Unidosvs
Cienciano
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 Cienciano
Original prediction
Cienciano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.4% | 32.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.4% | 25.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 37.2% | 42.0% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20