Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colón 3-3 Fenix
Original prediction
Colón
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.8% | 39.4% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.78 | 32.6% | 30.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.6% | 29.9% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Colón
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Colón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ColónWDWWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FenixDLWLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ColónFenix
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power15.3
1.28xG0.79