Colchestervs
Rochdale
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colchester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colchester 1-0 Rochdale
Original prediction
Colchester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 43.4% | 48.9% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.7% | 25.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.9% | 25.2% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Colchester
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Colchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40