Colchestervs
Crewe
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colchester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colchester 1-1 Crewe
Original prediction
Colchester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.5% | 35.7% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.4% | 29.7% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 29.2% | 34.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Colchester
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Colchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20