Colchestervs
Cheltenham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colchester 1-1 Cheltenham
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 47.6% | 35.4% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 24.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.9% | 39.9% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80