Club Nacionalvs
Rentistas
COMPLETEDUruguay · Copa Uruguay · 10/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Nacional 3-0 Rentistas
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.9% | 45.0% | -16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.3% | 28.8% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 6.07 | 14.8% | 26.2% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40