Club Nacionalvs
Liverpool Montevideo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/25/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Nacional 0-1 Liverpool Montevideo
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.6% | 39.1% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 28.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.7% | 32.1% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80