Club Nacionalvs
Deportivo Maldonado
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Nacional 3-2 Deportivo Maldonado
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 50.2% | 35.1% | -15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 23.1% | 37.4% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60