Club Nacionalvs
Defensor Sporting
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/20/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Club Nacional 0-0 Defensor Sporting, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Nacional 3-2 Defensor Sporting
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.0% | 51.5% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 28.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 18.6% | 20.3% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Projected Score
Club Nacional 0–0 Defensor Sporting
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00