Chicago Firevs
Philadelphia Union
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/15/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 39.0% | 39.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 24.2% | 26.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.8% | 33.9% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 20 · GA 6 · avg 4.00/1.20