Chicago Firevs
New York City FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/10/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 49.5% | 42.2% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.9% | 27.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 25.6% | 30.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00