Chicago Firevs
New England Revolution
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/13/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chicago Fire 1-2 New England Revolution
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 50.7% | 41.5% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.8% | 27.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 25.5% | 31.1% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00