Chicago Firevs
Inter Miami
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/10/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chicago Fire 1-1 Inter Miami
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.9% | 46.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.9% | 19.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 34.2% | 34.8% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–16%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20