Chesterfieldvs
York
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 2-0 York
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.4% | 33.3% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.1% | 25.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 34.5% | 41.3% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChesterfieldWDWDL
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
YorkWDLLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterfieldYork
44.4Attack72.2
55.6Defence55.6
44.4Form61.1
51.1Power63.2
1.29xG1.61