Chesterfieldvs
Tranmere
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 4-2 Tranmere
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.7% | 40.3% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.6% | 29.4% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 20.6% | 30.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60