Chesterfieldvs
Gillingham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 59.1% | 45.6% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.1% | 27.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 5.55 | 16.8% | 26.7% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60