Chesterfieldvs
Crewe
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 5-1 Crewe
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 56.1% | 39.1% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.9% | 29.5% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 4.63 | 20.0% | 31.4% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40