Chesterfieldvs
Colchester
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 1-1 Colchester
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 59.4% | 55.7% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.4% | 24.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 5.11 | 18.2% | 20.2% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40