Chesterfieldvs
Barnet
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnet · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesterfield 3-3 Barnet
Original prediction
Barnet
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.6% | 34.3% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.6% | 29.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.8% | 36.6% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Barnet
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Barnet has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChesterfieldDLWLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BarnetWDDWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterfieldBarnet
25.0Attack75.0
66.7Defence58.3
33.3Form66.7
44.6Power68.0
1.05xG1.44