Chelyabinskvs
Spartak Kostroma
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelyabinsk 0-1 Spartak Kostroma
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 30.3% | 22.1% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.8% | 24.9% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.8% | 52.9% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40