Chelyabinskvs
FC UFA
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC UFA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelyabinsk 2-1 FC UFA
Original prediction
FC UFA
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 44.4% | 23.2% | -21.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.0% | 24.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.6% | 52.7% | 26.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
26.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
FC UFA
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
FC UFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChelyabinskDWLLD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
FC UFADLDWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChelyabinskFC UFA
33.3Attack50.0
43.3Defence63.3
26.7Form56.7
36.3Power58.0
0.73xG1.66