Cheltenhamvs
York
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheltenham 3-2 York
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.79 | 24.6% | 32.0% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.1% | 26.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 49.3% | 41.6% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CheltenhamDLWLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
YorkWDWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CheltenhamYork
55.6Attack66.7
44.4Defence55.6
44.4Form77.8
51.1Power70.7
1.38xG1.53