Cheltenhamvs
Salford City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salford City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheltenham 0-2 Salford City
Original prediction
Salford City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.83 | 24.2% | 32.8% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.2% | 28.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 50.5% | 38.7% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Salford City
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Salford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80